March 2026

Drumroll please…welcome to the first edition of my monthly newsletter! Many of you know me from the No Cap Podcast, brokerage, or investing conversations.

Between interviewing some of the top CEOs in commercial real estate, advising multifamily owners, and underwriting deals as a principal, I’ve had a front-row seat to how this market is actually moving -- and I’m excited to start sharing more of that here.

No Cap Podcast

This week was a big one. We recorded back-to-back episodes with Brian Finnegan, President & CEO of Brixmor Property Group, and Ross Cooper, President & CIO of Kimco Realty -- two of the largest retail REITs in the country. Excited for these episodes to come out!

We also just released our conversation with Michael Cohen of Williams Equities. Michael comes from a family with a 100+ year legacy in New York real estate, and we spent time digging into how that history shapes their approach today -- from long-term ownership mindset to navigating cycles in one of the most competitive markets in the world.

We get into his role on the board of the Flatiron NoMad Partnership and what’s actually happening on the ground in NYC -- including the evolution of neighborhoods like these and what’s next for the city more broadly.

A great mix of history, perspective, and where things are heading.

What I'm Seeing Right Now

The Fed is currently on hold, with the Fed Funds rate at ~3.50%–3.75% after multiple cuts in 2025. Further easing is still possible, but timing remains uncertain as inflation continues to cool unevenly. The 10-Year Treasury, the core benchmark for CRE debt, is hovering in the low-4% range (~4.1%–4.3%), continuing to anchor pricing and keeping borrowing costs elevated.

In multifamily news, the story right now is supply, not demand. We’re still working through a historic wave of deliveries, especially across the Sunbelt, which is keeping rent growth muted and concessions in place. New starts have dropped meaningfully, so supply pressure should ease over the next 12–24 months, causing pricing and deal flow to pick up.

DFW / Houston / Austin (as a proxy):

Value-Add Class B (1980s–early 2000s vintage)

• 6.25% - 7.00% going-in caps

• Wider range depending on occupancy, loss-to-lease, and capex needs

• Anything with real hair (vacancy, collections, deferred maintenance) pushing north of 7%

Core / Core+ Class B (stabilized, lighter lift)

• 5.75% - 6.25% caps

• Still trades, but buyers are selective and underwriting flat rents near term

Class A (2018+ vintage)

• 4.75% - 5.25% caps

• Institutional capital still shows up here

• Pricing supported by replacement cost and more durable income